Newspaper Article

Wednesday, September 6, 2006

Democrats hope issues tip Pa. races their way

The Philadelphia Inquirer
By Mario F. Cattabiani
Inquirer Staff Writer

HARRISBURG — If it's not the war in Iraq, it's the prices at the pump, the missteps over Hurricane Katrina, or last year's unpopular legislative pay raise.

That's what Republican State Rep. Matthew Wright hears at most stops as he goes door to door in search of votes in Bucks County.

"The various factors that would drive a negative vote against me are all converging this year," conceded Wright, who called this race the toughest he's faced since winning his House seat in 1990.

Democrats are loving it.

A confluence of national and state issues - like those Wright described - will come crashing down so hard on Republicans in November, Democrats say, that they can pick up eight seats and capture control of the state House for the first time in a dozen years.

All 203 seats are on the ballot in November, although experts say the battle for the House could come down to a handful of hotly contested races in the Philadelphia suburbs, where both parties plan to invest heavily.

"Never before has there been so much momentum on our side," said House Minority Leader Bill DeWeese (D., Greene). "The environment is ripe for House Democrats to pluck the majority."

Republican control on the Senate is firmer, 29-21, and, with only 25 seats on the ballot, few but the most optimistic Democrats believe the upper chamber will switch hands.

Though acknowledging the difficulties, House Republican campaign officials remain confident that the party will keep the lower chamber, even in a year in which President Bush's popularity is so low.

"Republicans have represented their districts well and voters in Democratic districts feel left behind by their party," said Al Bowman, a spokesman for the House Republican Campaign Committee. "We will not lose the majority."

Republicans seized control of the lower chamber in 1995, not by winning it outright, but by persuading one lawmaker - Tom Stish of Hazleton - to switch parties. That one-member edge grew over the next five elections and now stands at 109-94.

To wrest back control, Democrats need to net eight seats.

Not since 1978 has a party picked up as many. That was a year of Democratic scandal and a tax increase, which culminated in Republicans' capturing the House by netting 19 seats.

One political expert put the odds of Democrats taking control this year at 40 percent.

"It's doable," said G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College. "There is a lot of feeling that Republicans are confused and disconsolate and Democrats are excited and exuberant that they can reverse the loses of the last several elections."

Not in recent memory has there been such opportunity.

Across the state, there are 43 House seats without an incumbent on the ballot, either through retirements or defeat in the May primary. Republicans hold 26 of

those open seats, giving further hope to Democrats that they can make up ground.

Democrats are banking on the Philadelphia suburbs for most of their gains. They have targeted at least four longtime Republicans for defeat - Wright, Eugene F. McGill of Montgomery County, and Nicholas A. Micozzie and Tom Gannon of Delaware County.

They also believe at this stage in the race that they have a good chance to defeat incumbent Rep. George T. Kenney Jr. (R., Phila.) and to pick up ground in seats being vacated by at least three Republicans: Reps. Jacqueline R. Crahalla and Sue Cornell, both in Montgomery, and Elinor Z. Taylor in Chester County.

"The next Democratic majority will come from the southeast, no doubt about it," said Dan Wiedemer, executive director of the House Democratic Campaign Committee. "The five-county region is the future of the Democratic Party."

It's a traditionally Republican area that in recent years has trended more Democratic. Support for Gov. Rendell, who is up for reelection, is high there.

Democrats are hoping that will draw voters to the polls and help their down-ballot House candidates while keeping away diehard Republicans who are uninspired by Lynn Swann's gubernatorial bid.

Republican campaign experts discount any such coattail effect, but they acknowledge that Bush, whose approval rating hovers around 30 percent, could hurt them in the Philadelphia suburbs.

"If I had to pick one thing making it bad in the southeast it's definitely Bush," Bowman said. "He's obviously a strain on the election."

Republicans are looking for gains in the southwest, where voters have tended to be more conservative in recent years.

Republicans believe at least five Democratic incumbents in the House are vulnerable there - a section of the state where outrage is still high over last year's legislative pay raise.

Republicans are eying two open seats held by Democrats who aren't on this year's ballot.

"There is a good chance that we end up trading three seats for three seats, or two for two," Bowman said.

By controlling the House - and likely the Governor's Office, given Rendell's poll numbers so far - Democrats envision a stronger focus on affordable health care and college tuition and perhaps even a larger bump in the minimum wage, which was raised two months ago.

Republicans counter that a shift would mean higher taxes.

"Just take your pay stub and look at the line that says state taxes and double it," Bowman said. "A Democratic House means higher taxes for everyone."

As he goes door to door, Wright said he does his best to distance himself from the problems facing his party this year. And he remains hopeful that, based on his years of constituent services, voters will return him and a Republican majority to the Capitol in November.

"Democrats will pick up a couple seats - and it may be mine," Wright said, "but I don't think it will be enough to change the majority."



Paid for by Smith 156 Committee, Jamie P. McVickar — Treasurer